Executive Summary
An estimated 1.7% of youth (aged 13-19) and 0.3% of adults in the United States identify as transgender. Applying these percentages to the number of youth and adults living in Washington State indicates that the state is home to approximately 10,500 transgender youth aged 13-19 and 15,900 adults aged 20 and older.
Washington State Initiative Measure 1515 (“the initiative”) requires public schools to restrict use of restrooms, locker rooms, shower rooms, saunas, and changing areas according to sex, “as determined biologically or genetically at birth.” The initiative also prohibits the state and localities from enacting ordinances, rules, or other policies that would allow individuals to use gender-segregated facilities that do not correspond to their biological sex. The initiative also explicitly allows public and private entities to designate and segregate private facilities, such as restrooms and changing areas, by biological sex. These policies are in conflict with several federal laws, and, if enacted, could lead to litigation, administrative enforcement, and other actions that could result in costs and lost revenue to the State of Washington. This memorandum analyzes the potential fiscal impact on Washington State as a result of the conflicts between the initiative and seven federal laws: Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972, Executive Order 13672, the Workforce Innovation and Opportunities Act, the Violence Against Women Act, the Affordable Care Act, Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and the Housing Act of 1949.
The potential fiscal impact of the bill includes:
- Loss of federal educational funding of approximately $1 billion annually as a result of Title IX violations in K-12 schools;
- Litigation and enforcement costs against K-12 schools both under the initiative’s directives as well as resulting from violations of Title IX and Title VII.
The initiative also encourages and could possibly be interpreted to mandate violations of federal law in all other public institutions and spaces. To the extent that other state, local and higher education entities comply with the initiative in violation of federal law, the fiscal impact could include:
- Loss of federal education funding of $520 million to $560 million in public post-secondary educational institutions and loss of federal student loan funding of $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion as a result of Title IX violations;
- Loss of federal contracts to public post-secondary educational institutions of an estimated $60 million to $90 million annually as a result of Executive Order 13672 violations;
- Loss of federal contracts to state and local entities of an estimated $20 million to $40 million annually as a result of Executive Order 13672 violations;
- Loss of federal funding to support the Washington Workforce Training and Education Coordinating Board of up to $65 million annually as a result of violations of the Workforce Innovation & Opportunity Act;
- Loss of federal grants authorized by the Violence Against Women Act of an estimated $2.5 million or more annually;
- Loss of federal funding from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services as a result of Affordable Care Act violations;
- Loss of federal funding from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development as a result of violations of the Housing Act of 1949;
- Costs incurred as a result of litigation and federal administrative enforcement under Title IX, Executive Order 13672, the Workforce Innovation & Opportunity Act, the Affordable Care Act, the Violence Against Women Act, Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and the Equal Access Rule promulgated under the Housing Act of 1949.