On October 31, 2025, the Trump administration published a Presidential Determination in the Federal Register that limits refugee admissions to the U.S. to 7,500 in 2026. Most slots will be allocated to white Afrikaners from South Africa and “other victims of illegal or unjust discrimination in their respective homelands.”
The new limits represent a 94% reduction from the 125,000-person target set during the Biden administration, and a decrease still from the 70,000-80,000-person ceilings established under Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush.
Under U.S. and international law, a refugee is someone unable to return to their country of origin due to a well-founded fear of persecution based on their race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group, which includes sexual orientation and gender identity. At least 62 countries have laws that criminalize consensual same-sex activity, with punishments ranging from imprisonment to the death penalty.
A new report from the Williams Institute at UCLA School of Law examines the implications of the cap for LGBTQI+ refugees awaiting resettlement in the U.S. It provides information on increasing global threats to LGBTQI+ people, the vulnerabilities they face in transit countries, and how limited data collection obscures the needs of LGBTQI+ refugees.
The United States has played an important role in global refugee resettlement, having resettled nearly 4 million refugees since the Refugee Act of 1980. The limits set by the administration mark a shift in U.S. foreign policy that will likely create or worsen challenges to refugee resettlement for LGBTQI+ people worldwide.
- Lack of family reunification. LGBTQI+ refugees, who are often single adults without family ties (having frequently fled family persecution), lack the family reunification pathways that might otherwise prioritize them for refugee resettlement.
- Refugee status determination challenges. LGBTQI+ refugees may lose priority status or have their claims dismissed when officials fail to recognize persecution based on sexual orientation or gender identity, when individuals fear disclosing their LGBTQI+ status, or when interpreters lack the appropriate language or cultural sensitivity.
- Anti-LGBTQI+ host countries. The cap could force LGBTQI+ refugees to stay in unwelcoming host countries or in other precarious situations along their migration route. Studies show that LGBTQI+ refugees face unique challenges in transit zones, where they encounter daily harassment, violence, and discrimination.
- For example, Uganda is Africa’s largest host country, hosting nearly 2 million refugees. In 2023, it passed one of the most draconian anti-LGBTQI+ laws in the world, applying the death penalty for cases of “aggravated homosexuality.”
- Economic vulnerability. Prolonged waiting in transit can result in severe financial strain for LGBTQI+ refugees lacking financial resources. Many experience difficulties obtaining residence permits necessary to begin legal employment, pushing them into exploitative situations or unsafe work.
- Leadership gap in LGBTQI+ refugee policy. Under the Biden administration, the Special Envoy for the Advancement of LGBTQI+ Rights had Priority-1 referral authority to refer at-risk LGBTQI+ individuals to be considered for refugee resettlement. President Trump has yet to appoint a Special Envoy.
- Lack of data on LGBTQI+ refugees. Countries and agencies working with refugees, including the U.S. government, do not systematically collect demographic data that includes sexual orientation, gender identity, or sex characteristics.
“The lack of reliable data on LGBTQI+ refugees makes the impact of this new cap even harder to measure,” said Ari Shaw, Senior Fellow and Director of International Programs at the Williams Institute. “Without accurate data, policymakers and service providers cannot fully assess or respond to the needs of LGBTQI+ refugees. Consequently, their urgent situations risk being overlooked when allocations are made about who gets resettled.”