LGBT Voters Crucial to Obama Popular Vote Victory: LGBT Voters Vital to Outcome in Florida

For Immediate Distribution
November 8, 2012

Contact: Laura Rodriguez, lrodriguez@rabengroup.com, (310) 956-2425

LGBT Voters Vital to Outcome in Florida

LOS ANGELES—The national LGBT vote was crucial to President Obama’s popular vote victory on Election Day, according to new analysis from Gary J. Gates, distinguished scholar at the Williams Institute. In a contest of razor-thin margins, the 4.5 million votes cast by the LGBT population was a critical component of the president’s winning coalition.

Similarly, analysis of preliminary returns from Florida show that the 420,000 total LGBT votes cast in the state may be a deciding factor in President Obama’s projected lead in Florida. Though final results aren’t yet known, an estimated 300,000 LGBT Floridians voted for the president—a margin many times larger than the current vote difference between the two candidates.

National Vote

Florida Vote

“In this close election, data suggest that the overwhelming LGBT support for President Obama constitutes a key factor in his victory,” said Gary J. Gates.

Analysis of Tuesday’s LGBT vote in favor of President Obama adds another dimension to an election where voters for the first time rejected referendums banning marriage for same-sex couples, the first openly-LGBT senator was elected and a record number of openly-LGBT members will serve in Congress.

Click here for further data about the political preferences of the LGBT community, including data from the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll.

Methodological Note: Exit polls did not report LGB vote for Florida. We assumed that, like the nation, 5% of voters in FL were LGB. Data from the Gallup Daily Tracking poll collected between June & September, 2012 suggest that the percentage of LGBT-identified individuals among registered voters in the US & Florida did not differ significantly, so this seems to be a reasonable assumption.

The Gallup data also suggest that LGBT-identified voters in Florida were somewhat more supportive of Gov Romney than national LGBT-identified voters. The estimated FL LGBT vote adjusts for these differences.